How To Make More Butterfly Effect Geographic

Butterfly Effect: Middle Eastern Bomb Biden should be reduced

  The real challenge is not Iran.  This is Israel and Saudi Arabia.

  The problems of the Middle East have been simmering for decades.  It becomes even harder to deal with when the characters involved are particularly naughty.

  As President-elect Joe Biden prepares to take office in January, he flies a Tinderbox in the Middle East with a fuse less than ever and sparks everywhere.  This will present Pythagoras with his most challenging foreign policy test - he cannot fail if he wants to avoid a complete conflict in the region.

  Tehran has blamed Israel for mounting tensions in the Middle East in recent days - understandably - over rising tensions following the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.  But look carefully, this is a sign of the complex equations that Biden inherited, and it is far more complex than anything his predecessors had to deal with for decades.

  To a large extent, this is due to the dramatic change in US relations in the Middle East undertaken by President Donald Trump.  Unlike any other US president in the last 70 years, Trump has openly sought to formalize relations between Israel and the region's Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain - and has had significant success.  Over the past few months, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have established official diplomatic relations with Israel.  In late November, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly flew to Riyadh to meet with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.  The best relations between the Arab countries of the region and Israel are the US.

  But Saudi Arabia and its Gulf partners have demanded their own pound of flesh in exchange for being closer to Israel.  There has been a change in their attitude towards the US taking tougher and tougher measures against Iran and its proxy fighters in the region.  Under Trump, the U.S.  It has largely abandoned the pretense of pressuring Saudi Arabia and other Arab monarchies to improve their record on human rights.  With Israel, meanwhile, while moving the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, the Trump administration has largely turned a blind eye to the high-profile allegations against Palestinian citizens, which is considered controversial by the United Nations.  (Most foreign trips to Israel are based in Tel Aviv.)

  Biden cannot continue on that path without seriously alienating key factions of his party, and he wants to restore a balance in America's relationship with key Middle Eastern players.  He would like to reassure Israel that the United States will protect its security, but insists that the Israeli and Palestinian leaders return to meaningful negotiations, which the U.S. has done from the beginning.  If Trump agrees to reverse the steps taken by Tehran to pull out of the deal, then the incoming US president will seek to revive the nuclear deal with Iran.  Biden would like to use the talks with Iran against Saudi Arabia's own regional hegemonic aspirations, which is evident in Yemen, where it is waging a war against Tehran's representatives.

  But if Biden tries to follow this plan, immediate opposition can be expected.  There will no longer be an incentive for Saudi Arabia and its allies to kiss openly and be a supporter of Israel.  They have secret ties with Israel, and keeping them that way also allows them to speak for the Palestinian state, thus maintaining their credibility in the Islamic world.  If the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain pull out of peace agreements with Israel, it could be the reverse of rare foreign policy victories under Trump, who serves the interests of both parties.

  Maintaining relations with Israel will not be easy if Biden approaches Tehran.  Democrats cannot forget that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke publicly with Obama about the Iran nuclear deal.  Tehran, meanwhile, is keeping its horses in retaliation for Fakhrzadeh's assassination, in the hope that Biden will revive the deal and remove some of the sanctions that have crippled Iran's economy.

  If Biden, who is wary of Israel's response, does not offer Iran an olive branch, there is little reason for Tehran to act.  That situation can be expected to escalate tensions with its militants.  All the key players in the region - Israel, Iran and Saudi Arabia - are aware of these dangers.  Netanyahu, the MBS (as it is known as the Saudi Crown Prince) and Iran’s semi-intelligence agencies, are leading figures in the region who are happy to provoke each other if they think the US is serving them well.  Israel and Saudi Arabia in particular have become accustomed to Trump’s approach, and it is understandable that they will not like the resettlement.

  There are no easy answers for the incoming Biden group, even though it has worked with foreign policy veterans who are familiar with the region and its nuances.  Yet they need to find an answer.  Deactivating this ticking time bomb is not an option.

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